1. It’s an election year. Will foreign and defense policy be an issue? Yes, if the Iran talks fail to produce a firm, long-term agreement. Yes, if Syria falls into the hands of Islamist rebels, if the civil war stays bloody, if the chemical agreement does not work or is violated. Yes, if the Saudis keep sniping and Obama for indecision. Yes, if China keeps pushing on the edge of war in the Second Island Chain. Yes, if there is a major terrorist attack on the US. No, if these go the right way.
2. We are on the edge of a conceptual shift in Us foreign policy. American exceptionalism is dying a difficult death, as the US adjusts to not being the indispensable nation. The Asians will settle their own hash, mostly. Africans are doing their own peacekeeping. The Europeans don’t see much purpose for NATO after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Middle East is in turmoil and nobody wants the US to fix it; the Saudis are the latest to complain about what they see as feckless US leadership. The American military is having to adjust to less and to patrolling the globe less frequently. This trend could accelerate this coming year.
3. It’s another budget year – will we have cliff-hangers through the year? No, it is likely to be one of the more quiet budget years since 2010. The “little deal” will turn out to be a big deal and nobody will want to go to the mattresses or over the edge on the debt ceiling or the budget. Power back to the appropriators, for a while, anyway. And a relief to civil servants, who paid nicely for the sequester madness. And a relief to voters, who are tired of a dysfunctional Congress.