President Obama's move to freeze Federal pay in 2011 and 2012 has generated a lot of heat this winter. Robert Shea, Principal in the Global Public Sector practice at Grant Thornton, was involved in pay debates in the White House when he was Associate Director for Management at the Office of Management and budget, and he joined me a couple weeks back to talk about the affect the freeze would have on the workforce, and on agency budgets.

Robert joined me again today to review his top four predictions for the Federal government for 2011:

4. Programs will be terminated or cut substantially, perhaps more than ever before. Increased scrutiny from new members of Congress on both sides of the aisle will drive program changes.

3. Federal employees WILL get raises. Smart managers know - or will figure out - the tools they have to reward the really good people in their organizations.

2. There WILL be a scandal. This is Washington, after all. Increased oversight of the executive branch will lead to the uncovering of some mistake.

1. The Republic will survive, neigh flourish. The greatness of America will continue to be a thumb on the scales that gives us advantages in the world.